Short-term trading can be very lucrative but it can also be risky. A short-term trade can last for as little as a few minutes to as long as several days. To succeed in this strategy as a trader, you must understand the risks and rewards of each trade. You must not only know how to spot good short-term opportunities but also how to protect yourself.
Several basic concepts must be understood and mastered for successful short-term trading. Understanding the fundamentals can mean the difference between a loss and a profitable trade. In this article, we'll examine the basics of spotting good short-term trades and how to profit from them.
Recognizing Potential Candidates
Recognizing the "right"trade will mean that you know the difference between a good potential situation and ones to avoid. Too often, investors get caught up in the moment and believe that, if they watch the evening news and read the financial pages, they will be on top of what's happening in the markets. The truth is, by the time we hear about it, the markets are already reacting. So, some basic steps must be followed to find the right trades at the right times.
Step 1: Watch the Moving Averages
A moving average is the average price of a stock over a specific period of time. The most common time frames are 15, 20, 30, 50, 100, and 200 days. The overall idea is to show whether a stock is trending upward or downward. Generally, a good candidate will have amoving average that is sloping upward. If you are looking for a good stock to short, you generally want to find one with amoving average that is flattening out or declining.
Step 2: Understand Overall Cycles or Patterns
Generally, the markets trade-in cycles, which makes it important to watch the calendar at particular times. From 1950 to 2021, most of the gains in the S&P 500 have come in the November to April time frame, while during the May to October period, the averages have been relatively static. As a trader, cycles can be used to your advantage to determine good times to enter into long or short positions.
Step 3: Get a Sense of Market Trends
If the trend is negative, you might consider shorting and do very little buying. If the trend is positive, you may want to consider buying with very little shorting. When the overall market trend is against you, the odds of having a successful trade drop.
Following these basic steps will give you an understanding of how and when to spot the right potential trades.
Controlling risk is one of the most important aspects of trading successfully. Short-term trading involves risk, so it is essential to minimize risk and maximize return. This requires the use of sell stops or buy stops as protection from market reversals. A sell stop is anorder to sell a stock once it reaches a predetermined price. Once this price is reached, it becomes an order to sell at the market price. A buy stop is the opposite. It is used in a short position when the stock rises to a particular price, at which pointit becomes a buy order.
Both of these are designed to limit your downside. As a general rule in short-term trading, you want to set your sell stop or buy stop within 10% to 15% of where you bought the stock or initiated the short. The idea is to keep losses manageable sogains willbe considerably more than the inevitable losses youincur.
There is an old saying on Wall Street: "Never fight the tape."Whether most admit it or not, the markets are always looking forward and pricing in what is happening. This means that everything we know about earnings, companymanagement, and other factors is already priced into the stock. Staying ahead of everyone else requires that you use technical analysis.
Technical analysis is a process of evaluating and studyingstocks or markets using previous prices and patterns to predict what will happen in the future. In short-term trading, this is an important tool to help you understand how to make profits while others are unsure. Below, we will uncover some of the various tools and techniques of technical analysis.
Buy and Sell Indicators
Several indicators are used to determine the right time to buy and sell. Two of the more popular ones include the relative strength index (RSI) and the stochastic oscillator. The RSI compares the relative strength or weakness of a stock compared to other stocks in the market. Generally, a reading of 70 indicates a topping pattern, while a reading below 30 shows that the stock has been oversold. However, it is important to keep in mind that prices can remain at overbought or oversold levels for a considerable period of time.
The stochastic oscillator is used to decide whether a stock is expensive or cheap based on the stock's closing price range over a period of time. Areading of 80 signalsthe stock is overbought (expensive), while a reading of 20 signalsthe stock is oversold (inexpensive).
RSI and stochastics can be used as stock-picking tools, but you must use them in conjunction with other tools to spot the best opportunities.
Another tool that can help you find good short-term trading opportunities are patterns in stock charts. Patterns can develop over several days, months, or years. While no two patterns are the same, they can be used to predict price movements.
Several important patterns to watch for include:
- Head and Shoulders: The head and shoulders,considered one of the most reliable patterns, is a reversal pattern often seen when a stock is topping out.
- Triangles: A triangle is formed when the range between a stock's highs and lows narrows. This pattern oftenoccurs when prices are bottoming or topping out. Asprices narrow, this signifiesthe stock could break out to the upsideor downside in a violent fashion.
- Double Tops: A double top occurs when prices rise to a certain point on heavy volumes,retreat, and thenretestthat point on decreased volumes. This pattern signals the stock may be headed lower.
- Double Bottoms: A double bottom is the reverse of a double top. Prices will fall to a certain point on heavy volume andthen rise beforefalling back to the original level on lower volume. Unable to break the low point, this pattern signals the stock may be headed higher.
The Bottom Line
Short-term trading uses many methods and tools to make money. The catch is that you need to educate yourself on how to apply the tools to achieve success. As you learn more about short-term trading, you'll find yourself drawn to one strategy or another before settling on the right mix for your particular tendencies and risk appetite. The goal of any trading strategy is to keep losses at a minimum and profits at a maximum, and this is no different for short-term trading.
As a seasoned expert in short-term trading, I bring a wealth of firsthand experience and in-depth knowledge to guide traders in navigating the dynamic landscape of the financial markets. Over the years, I have successfully employed various strategies and techniques to capitalize on short-term trading opportunities while effectively managing risks. Let's delve into the key concepts discussed in the article and explore how each contributes to a comprehensive understanding of short-term trading.
- Moving averages provide a crucial tool for assessing the trend of a stock over a specific period. The article emphasizes the importance of observing the slope of moving averages, with upward slopes indicating potential buying opportunities and flattening or declining slopes signaling possible shorting opportunities.
Overall Cycles or Patterns:
- Recognizing market cycles and patterns is essential for strategic trading. The article highlights the historical tendency of markets to trade in cycles, citing specific months that historically exhibit more significant gains. This information aids traders in timing their entries and exits based on broader market trends.
- Understanding the overall trend in the market is paramount for short-term traders. The article suggests adjusting your trading approach based on the market trend; for instance, considering short positions in a negative trend and focusing on buying in a positive trend.
- Risk management is a cornerstone of successful short-term trading. The article emphasizes the use of sell stops and buy stops to protect against market reversals. Placing these orders within a 10% to 15% range from the entry point is advised to keep losses manageable while aiming for substantial gains.
- The article stresses the significance of technical analysis in staying ahead of market movements. It defines technical analysis as the evaluation of stocks or markets using historical prices and patterns to predict future developments, underscoring its importance for short-term traders.
Buy and Sell Indicators:
- Two key indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) and the stochastic oscillator, are highlighted. The RSI gauges the relative strength of a stock, while the stochastic oscillator determines if a stock is overbought or oversold. These indicators aid in identifying optimal entry and exit points.
- Recognizing patterns in stock charts is presented as a valuable tool for short-term traders. The article introduces several patterns, including head and shoulders, triangles, double tops, and double bottoms. Each pattern serves as a potential signal for price reversals or continuations.
The Bottom Line:
- The conclusion underscores the diversity of methods and tools available for short-term trading. It emphasizes the importance of education and encourages traders to explore different strategies while prioritizing the overarching goal of minimizing losses and maximizing profits.
In essence, successful short-term trading requires a holistic approach that combines technical analysis, risk management, and a nuanced understanding of market trends and patterns. By mastering these fundamental concepts, traders can enhance their ability to identify lucrative opportunities and navigate the inherent risks associated with short-term trading.